Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions
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February 2025
Authors
Tyler H. Norris 
, Tim Profeta, Dalia Patino-Echeverri , and Adam Cowie-Haskell
Type
Report
Pages
43
Publisher
Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Duke University
iCopyright | Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/10161/32077
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A key solution to the United States' soaring electrical demand—driven by unprecedented electricity needs from data centers and their booming artificial intelligence workloads, alongside other consumers—is load flexibility. Flexibility allows large electricity users to temporarily reduce consumption during periods of grid stress by shifting workloads, utilizing on-site generation, or adjusting operations. By leveraging flexibility, new large loads can be interconnected more quickly while reducing the need for premature investment in additional power plants and transmission lines—offering a hedge against uncertainty in future electricity demand in light of the release of DeepSeek.
This national-scale analysis provides a first-order estimate of how much new flexible load could be added across the 22 largest US balancing authorities, which collectively serve 95% of the grid. The study introduces a new concept—curtailment-enabled headroom—to describe how much additional load the grid can absorb using existing capacity, with only modest, short-duration reductions in usage. The findings highlight a significant opportunity: nearly 100 GW of large new loads could be integrated with minimal impact, supporting economic growth while maintaining grid reliability and affordability.
More on this publication:
- READ: Three key takeaways.
- WATCH: A Feb. 19 webinar with the authors.
- VIEW: Webinar slides.
- READ: Congressional testimony referencing the report.
In the news:
- Listen: Does Residential Solar Have a Bad Product?
Open Circuit by Latitude Media - Lawmakers Scrutinize Power Sector's Future as Surging Demand Raises Alarms POWER
- How Utility Customers Wind Up Paying to Serve Data Centers Heatmap News
- Data Centers Are Coming to NC. Can Duke Energy Power Them While Keeping Your Lights On? The News & Observer
- Nicholas Institute Study Cited During Congressional Hearing on Scaling Electricity for GrowthUS House Energy and Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Energy
- Study Suggests Utilities May Be Overbuilding and Overspending to Accommodate New Data Centers WFAE
- One Way Data Centers Can Help the Grid? By Being Flexible Canary Media
- Smart Policies Can Halt the Stampede to New Gas Power Plants Kleinman Center for Energy Policy at the University of Pennsylvania
- North Carolina Study Finds Surging AI Industry Could be Powered Without New Gas Infrastructure Port City Daily
- Duke Researchers: Grid Flexibility Key to Accommodate Load Growth POWER
- How to Reduce Large Load Speculation? Standardize the Interconnection Process. Utility Dive
- Data Centers Could Unlock 76 GW of U.S. Grid Capacity Through Optional Curtailment - Report Data Center Dynamics
- Duke University Study Examines Load Growth Potential in the U.S. Power System Daily Energy Insider
- Significant Flexible Load Potential for U.S. Grid Finds Duke Study Smart Energy International
- Study Finds a Way to Power the AI Boom Without a Bunch of New Gas Plants Mother Jones
- Study Finds Headroom on the Grid for Data Centers E&E News
- Data Center Tweaks Could Unlock 76 GW of New Power Capacity in the U.S. TechCrunch
- Idea to Watch: "Curtailment-Enabled Headroom" Axios Generate
- U.S. Grid Could Serve 100 GW of Added Load Through 'Modest' Curtailments—Study S&P Capital IQ
- U.S. Grid Has Flexible ‘Headroom’ for Data Center Demand Growth RTO Insider
- New Study Highlights Opportunities to Accommodate Load Growth in U.S. Power Systems Without Extensive Upgrades T&D World
- Study Examines Potential for Integration of Large Flexible Loads in U.S. Power Systems American Public Power Association
- One Weird Trick for Getting More Data Centers on the Grid Heatmap News
- Existing U.S. Grid can Handle ‘Significant’ New Flexible Load: Report Utility Dive
- America May Not Need a Massive Energy Build-Out to Power the AI Revolution Council on Foreign Relations
- The U.S. Grid May Have Over 100 GW of Load to Spare Latitude Media
- Flexibility Will Go a Long Way Toward Managing the Grid of the Near Future, Researchers Say Inside Climate News
For media inquiries, contact the Nicholas Institute communications team at ni-comm@duke.edu.
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